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Free Betting Totals Picks for UFC 212

UFC 212 Betting Picks

The UFC returns this week from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil for UFC 212 and we have 3 hot free plays from the event to help you out with your handicapping ventures. Our record on the year is 18-5 and this week, we are popping off 3 more plays! Let’s jump on in and find some value at UFC 212!

Max Holloway vs. Jose Aldo

The first fight we are taking a look into is the main event between Max Holloway and Jose Aldo. The total on this fight is set at 4.5 rounds. Had this fight been set at 3.5 rounds, I was going to double down and go all in as I absolutely do NOT think there is any way possible this fight ends before the 3rd round. First off, Max Holloway, nor Jose Aldo, really have many early stoppages in their career. Holloway is very difficult to finish. Conor McGregor couldn’t do it, Dennis Bermudez couldn’t do it, he did get submitted by Dustin Poirier but that was in his UFC debut so I throw that fight out. He has faced great strikers like Jeremy Stephens, Leonard Garcia, Andre Fili, Cub Swanson and most recently Anthony Pettis and not only could they not finish him, he left with the win in the fight!

The last memory that most people will remember about Jose Aldo is that he was knocked out 13 seconds into the fight against Conor McGregor in one of the most hyped fights in UFC history. There was a ton of hype for a fight that ended so quickly but the reality is nerves got the best of Aldo and he truly wasn’t prepared for that fight. Early on in Aldo’s career, he was finishing people at a much high rate but as of late, majority of his wins come by way of decision. I think the first round of this fight will be a feeling out phase for both fighters, and rather boring to be honest with you. The second and third round we will see much more action but still, not enough to get a finish in the title fight. I think this fight goes the distance so I’m playing the over 4.5 rounds here.

Pick: Aldo vs. Holloway over 4.5 rounds -160 for 3 Units

Viviane Pereira vs. Jamie Moyle

This fight between Viviane Pereira and Jamie Moyle is out of my comfort zone with odds but the reality is it is one of the safer plays this week on the board. The strawweight ladies usually don’t have that prominent stopping power to finish an opponent, especially on the UFC level. That is evident if you look down the roster in the UFC. This fight, should be routine as both these ladies have impressive records but neither is known for finishes. Pereira is undefeated at 12-0 but has one of the lowest finishing rates on the card at 42%. The only person with a lower finish rate is her opponent, Jamie Moyle, who owns a 25% finish rate at a record of 4-1. Moyle’s only loss was by way of decision so neither of these ladies have ever been stopped. No doubt in my mind that this fight goes the distance!

Pick: Pereira vs. Moyle over 2.5 rounds -300 for 2 Units

Antonio Carlos Junior vs. Eric Spicely

This fight is all about styles. Both of these guys are grapplers and not known for their striking. The difference here is one of them is a world class grappler and the other’s false hope will get him caught in this fight. Antonio Carlos Junior is a world class BJJ Black Belt and Pan Am Champion. He is one of the best bigger weight BJJ practitioners in the UFC and going to the ground with this guy is like taking your life in your own hands! Eric Spicely has back to back submission wins and after the fights, got on the microphone with Joe Rogan and bragged about how his submission game was one of the best in the division. Winning a fight by submission over Alessio Di Chirico and Thiago Santos is a lot different than winning a fight over someone the caliber of Antonio Carlos Junior. I think his self hype gets him in trouble here and Junior submits him in the first round!

Pick: Junior vs. Spicely under 1.5 rounds +120 for 2 Units