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Weekend MMA Picks and Tips

Roy Nelson vs. Alexander Volkov

There is a ton of MMA to bet this week and we are happy to have some MMA to write about and give some free plays on. The event we are most interested in this week is UFC on Fox 24 on Saturday Night. We have been doing very good this year in MMA going 13-3 overall with our free handicapping plays and looking to keep the winning ways this week.

UFC on Fox 24: Johnson vs. Reis

Roy Nelson vs. Alexander Volkov

One of the top value plays of the entire weekend is in the fight between Roy “Big Country” Nelson and Alexander Volkov. In about 90% of the time, most handicappers will tell you to play a heavyweight bout under the total because they are heavy handed fighters that don’t usually go the distance. Most times, they don’t have the cardio that other weight divisions have and they have a whole lot more knockout power to end a fight with one punch. That being said, there are times when a fight comes in front of us and it has over written all over it!

Roy Nelson has fought 35 times in his career and in that time frame he has only been finished 2 times. He is drastically out of shape and looks more like something you would see in a hot dog eating contest but the reality is his cardio is better than most would think. Nelson has gone the distance 14 times and has gone past the 1.5 round mark 20 times out of 35 fights. He has a granite chin and he has taken shots from some of the hardest strikers in the game including Derrick Lewis, Mirko Cro Cop, Alistair Overeem, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, UFC Heavyweight Champion Stipe Miocic and Junior Dos Santos and taken their best shots on the chin!

Nelson will be taking on former Bellator Heavyweight Champ Alexander Volkov. Volkov is 27-6 and on a 3 fight win streak. Volkov is a 6’07 tall lanky fighter with an 81-inch reach. Volkov has fought much lighter competition over at Bellator and will now face someone with a chin that will stand in front of him and fight. Volkov has a tendency to run when he is pressured and you can certainly bet that Nelson is going to pressure him.

This fight total is set at 1.5 rounds. Listen to me, I see absolutely NO CHANCE this fight ends in the first round. Neither of these fighters is used to getting finished and both should play a very reserved gameplan strategy as they will both be cautious of the other’s offensive output. I really like this fight to go OVER the 1.5 rounds and can see this fight stretching out late in the 3rd round, possibly going the distance.

Pick: Roy Nelson vs. Alexander Volkov Over 1.5 Rounds -175 for 2 Units

Tom Duquesnoy vs. Patrick Williams

The next fight we are looking at for some value totals is the bout between Tom Duquesnoy and Patrick Williams.

Tom “Fire Kid” Duquesnoy is on a 10 fight win streak and has a record of 14-1 overall. He will be making his long anticipated UFC debut against Patrick “The Animal” Williams. Duquesnoy has finished 11 of his 15 opponents. He has fought above the average competition at the regional level for the promotion BAMMA and in those fights, he is still finishing his opposition.

Patrick Williams will be coming off almost a 2-year absence from the Octagon. He last fought on June 13, 2015, against Alejandro Perez at UFC 188. Williams is 8-4 in his career and has only gone past the 2nd round 3 times in his entire career. This guy either finishes his opponent or gets finished early in the fight.

In most bantamweight fights, I lean to the over because they don’t have the finishing power to stop their opponents but in this case, you have 1 fighter making his UFC debut and wanting to make a 1st impression to Dana White and staff and on the other side of the cage, you have a fighter that hasn’t fought in 2 years and will have cardio issues. I think this fight ends early in the fight and I will be going with the under 1.5 rounds at -110.

Pick: Tom Duquesnoy vs. Patrick Williams Under 1.5 Rounds -110 for 2 Units